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《华尔街日报》：服务业已成为苹果新的增长点，但也存在许多问题。_我的网站
一 | The energy issue appeared to be the real reason behind Biden's visit to the Saudi kingdom, which he promised to turn into a "pariah state" on the campaign trail in 2019-2020. Since the beginning of 2021, prices for oil have soared more than two-fold in the US, prompting the Biden administration to seek ways to convince the Saudis and their OPEC allies to step up crude production in order to bring energy costs down.,"The oil policy in Saudi Arabia pretty much is set," said Dr. Ahmed Al Ibrahim, a Riyadh-based political analyst. "They are monitoring the market and they are floating the market with supply chains consistently with the demand. They cannot overdo that because it does not help the market and the OPEC+ members. And also Saudi Arabia is burdened by contracts where they cannot really actually go by themselves and take the decision. They are part of an OPEC+ and these countries, they said they are very efficient and the energy prices are very good.",The political scientist highlighted that "there is no margin of complimenting the United States just because they needed more oil in the market for whatever reason." Moreover, according to the professor, the oil market is already saturated with oil and further extraction may only disrupt the balance. On June 30, officials from OPEC, Russia and other oil-producing countries confirmed their decision taken in May to increase output by 648,000 barrels per day in August.,"I think most of the OPEC+ countries, they've reached almost the maximum output," explained Al Ibrahim, adding that he does not see a way to considerably step up oil extraction in the foreseeable future.,Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) stated on July 16 that the only thing Riyadh can do is boost crude production from 10 million barrels per day to 13 million per day by 2027, adding that there is no additional capacity beyond that. MBS also highlighted that unified efforts are required to keep the global economy afloat, and that unrealistic policies regarding energy sources could instigate further inflation.,Bilateral Ties, Defense & Energy: Key Takeaways From Biden's Saudi Arabia Visit16 July, 14:40 GMT,Middle Eastern Players’ Security Concerns,Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are seeking the US’ concrete commitment to improve mutual ties. During the July 16 Jeddah Summit for Security and Development, which brought together the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) alongside Egypt, Jordan and Iraq, Biden vowed that the US would remain fully engaged in the Middle East. The US president particularly said that the US would not "leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.","We will have to take from President Biden's word that America is not turning its back on the region, that America will defend its interests in the region," said Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, professor of political science at Emirates University and author of several books, including The Gulf Moment. "However, the future will reveal to what extent that is true.",Riyadh previously voiced concerns over the Biden administration putting US-Saudi arms deals on pause, as well as the White House's talks over the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal. In addition to that, it turned out in June 2021 that the Pentagon had pulled approximately eight Patriot anti-missile batteries from Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system was also withdrawn from Saudi Arabia at that time, according to the Wall Street Journal.,The professor drew attention to the fact that Washington has recently shifted its focus to Europe and to the Indo-Pacific from the Middle East. According to Abdulla, the Biden administration appears to be preoccupied with Ukraine and its rivalry with China, which is currently emerging as an economic superpower. "So whether America will pay attention to the Middle East in light of all of this preoccupation, that is something we will just have to watch for the days and months and years to come," he noted.,Dr. Ahmed Al Ibrahim echoes the Emirati professor's concerns: while the US and especially its military and intelligence community remain an important ally for Saudi Arabia, Riyadh cannot rely on the rapidly changing mood of the Democratic establishment, citing Biden's recent U-turn.,"Now, Biden is saying all that stuff," Al Ibrahim said. "Let's see if this administration will keep their part of the bargain or in three years another president comes and he decides to basically wipe up everything Biden said or actually recognize the region even more. Saudi Arabia is injured by the 18 months that this administration has ruptured the relationship with [Riyadh]. And we need to be shown some real solid commitment from the US in order for Saudi Arabia to recover from the mistrust and misunderstanding by this administration that did to us in the past 18 months.",Given that, neither Saudi Arabia nor Egypt, Israel or Iraq are going "to put all their eggs in one basket," Al Ibrahim pointed out, in an apparent reference to the potential diversification of diplomatic ties.,Earlier this week, Purnima Anand, the president of the BRICS International Forum, told Russian newspaper Izvestia that Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia are preparing to formally apply for membership in BRICS, an acronym for five emerging economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.,Global Power Shifting Away From West, While BRICS Expanding & Increasing Legitimacy14 July, 16:45 GMT,Washington's Politicization of Khashoggi Case,It appears that US President Joe Biden could not help but raise the issue of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi once again during his trip, even though the Saudi kingdom conducted an extensive investigation into the crime and prosecuted eight culprits. Khashoggi's son Salah later announced that the Saudi judiciary had been fair to his family and that "justice has been achieved".,According to the Gulf observers, Biden's latest remark that he considers the crown prince responsible for the tragedy was primarily aimed at his electoral base ahead of the November midterm elections.,"President Biden, even when he is here in the region, has his mind in Washington and is speaking to an audience in America," said Abdulla. "And probably he wants to capitalize on his appearance in Washington, in Riyadh and in Jeddah. And he knows it is a large segment in his own party, the ones to the left listen to him very carefully, evaluating him.",The crown prince's answer was not long in coming: MBS told the US president that Saudi Arabia has dealt with the issue and that the country's justices had a final say.,Riyadh is well aware that the Khashoggi issue is highly politicized by Washington and is resolutely withstanding the White House's allegations, noted Al Ibrahim. In response to the Biden administration's accusations MBS cited the Abu Ghraib torture and prisoner abuse committed by the US military and CIA personnel in Iraq in the early 2000s, stressing that rogue incidents took place under the US watch too. Riyadh also drew attention to the fact that in the same year that Khashoggi was murdered, over 248 journalists were killed across the world and nobody is talking about them, Al Ibrahim concluded.,"Did Biden get everything he wanted from this [Jeddah] meeting?" asks Abdulla. "I think if he goes away with the view that he is from now on dealing with a new Gulf that deserves respect and new Gulf leaders who are now not necessarily the same as the old leaders. They have a new agenda. They have a new view. They have their own new vision.",The only question is whether Washington has understood this and will reconcile itself with this new reality, the professor noted.。在对iPhone需求疲软给公司前景蒙上阴影的时候，苹果将其快速增长的服务业务作为亮点。然而，服务业务本身也面临着挑战。
二 | 苹果首席执行官蒂姆•库克（TimCook）上周致信投资者，警告iPhone销售放缓。在信中，他强调了服务业务的重要性，透露了第四季度服务业务收入达到108亿美元。在公司的五个业务部门中，苹果只披露了其服务部门的收入。苹果快速增长的服务，包括应用商店、流媒体音乐订阅和移动支付，再次成为该公司的亮点。
三 | 然而，苹果三分之二的收入仍然依赖于iPhone，其服务业务的增长受到了应用程序商店收入增长放缓、新出现的反托拉斯担忧以及Netflix等公司对苹果支付系统回避的威胁。苹果没有表现出愿意将其服务部署到自己的设备之外，也没有证明它能够赶上它的竞争对手，如Facebook和谷歌，不断改进其软件，并用大量的个人数据定制其产品。咨询公司Creative Strategies的技术分析师本•巴贾林（Ben Bajarin）认为，技术公司需要改变。”开发服务需要一种非常不同的方法，”他说。服务业务已成为当今科技行业新的增长点，许多硬件公司开始把服务业务作为增长点。对于IBM、惠普、戴尔等公司来说，当核心业务增长放缓时，他们寻求转型并非一帆风顺。这些公司正在转向商业服务，而苹果则专注于消费者。
四 | 消费者的口味变化很快。
五 | 苹果的成功将取决于推广应用程序销售、推广视频内容和新闻订阅等新服务。
六 | 服务已经成为苹果发展最快的业务部门。2017年，库克设定了到2020年将服务收入翻番至500亿美元的目标。在上一个财政年度服务收入增长33%至397.5亿美元后，苹果有望实现这一目标。服务占苹果总收入的15%，高于2016财年的11%。由于采用了新的会计准则，苹果的服务收入继续增长。上周，苹果将上一财年的业绩重新分类，将部分产品收入分为服务业务。苹果服务业务的增长仍然与iPhone、iPad和Mac的销售密切相关，而苹果的销售正在放缓。
七 | 苹果表示，去年其活跃设备总数增长了8%，达到14亿台。与2015-2018年复合年增长率超过15%相比，增速开始放缓。这种放缓在中国尤为明显。由于中国经济增长放缓，智能手机市场竞争激烈，以及腾讯卫信超级应用的普及，中国对iPhone的需求有所下降。微信依靠苹果的iOS系统来减少iOS和Android之间的系统差异，并提供小程序来降低应用商店的吸引力。应用支持跟踪公司Sensor Tower的数据显示，去年中国的应用商店销售额增长了14%，远低于2012年至2018年超过120%的复合年增长率。然而，库克透露，中国服务业的收入在第四季度创下了历史新高。”我们相信中国有光明的未来，”他在给投资者的信中说。在中国以外，苹果继续享有较高的设备忠诚度。研究公司的分析师、诺基亚前高管霍瑞斯·迪迪欧（HoraceDediu）表示，iPhone在现有用户中的保留率预计将高达90%。他说，在苹果14亿活跃设备用户中，服务买家仍然占很小的比例，预计未来还会增长。苹果在服务业的历史好坏参半。
八 | 尽管iTunes和应用程序商店很受欢迎，地图软件最初还是被不准确的信息所困扰，苹果支付系统的发展也并不顺利。
九 | 应用商店的势头已经放缓，但应用商店的成功掩盖了苹果的其他缺点。投资银行杰弗里（Jeffrey）估计，应用商店对苹果服务业贡献最大，约占总收入的35%。苹果的应用程序商店销售额占30%。根据Sensor Tower的数据，自2014年以来，苹果的应用商店销售额增加了一倍多，达到444.9亿美元。应用商店的收入增长已经放缓，但应用商店的增长正在放缓。
十 | Sensor Tower表示，除中国以外，美国应用商店的收入增长去年略有放缓。”这些市场没有开发潜力，印度等增长型市场中普通智能手机用户的购买力远低于美国，”传感器塔移动分析主管兰迪•纳尔逊（Randy Nelson）表示。
十一 | 与此同时，苹果正在等待美国最高法院的裁决。这将决定iPhone用户是否可以起诉苹果，指控苹果垄断应用商店，并寻求反垄断赔偿。一旦法官认定用户的收费是基于此，苹果从应用商店削减30%的费用将面临挑战。Netflix和其他避免将苹果分为Netflix和Fortress Night（史诗游戏）的游戏开发商都试图避免与苹果分享收入。
十二 | Netflix计划阻止新客户使用苹果的计费系统。Epic建立了自己的应用商店，仅占总数的12%。许可收入是苹果去年最大的收入增长动力，预计将放缓。谷歌预计将向苹果支付高达90亿美元作为Safari浏览器的默认搜索引擎，但在去年飙升后，其流量获取成本预计将下降。来自应用商店、音乐和其他服务的收入正面临这些挑战，苹果正在扩大苹果音乐和iTunes电影的覆盖面。苹果音乐公司现在已经在亚马逊的语音助手Alexa的支持下使用了智能扬声器。iTunes电影和电视应用程序将于今年在新的三星电视上发布。
十三 | LG和索尼的新电视也可以播放苹果设备的视频。Bagalin说，这些交易证明，苹果开始重视通过销售家用扬声器和苹果电视机顶盒带来的音乐和视频订阅。”你不能保证每个人都在使用iPhone，”他说。分析人士推测，苹果可能会为视频、新闻和音乐等服务提供单一订阅。”摩根士丹利（MorganStanley）分析师凯蒂•胡伯蒂（KatyHuberty）表示：“对于一些苹果用户来说，通过一次订阅使用所有服务是一种你不想考虑的选择。
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